AMR.Solutions

Economic modeling of the value of rapid diagnostics

Dear All (and again with thanks to Arjun Srinivasan for co-authoring this pair of newsletters):

In parallel with the newsletter discussing a recent paper on the impact of rapid antimicrobial susceptibility testing (27 May 2026 newsletter, “Limits on measuring the impact of rapid AST”), we have release of an exceptionally well-done classic economic approach showing that rapid diagnostics rapid could save thousands of lives per year and hundreds of millions of dollars in health care savings in the G7. The comprehensive economic analysis goes beyond AST devices to cover both diagnostics that (i) identify the pathogen and/or (ii) provide AST data. Here are the links you need:

  • (the report itself) Hassan S, Hamlyn T, Fong H, Hampson G. 2026. The Value of Fast Diagnostics in Time-Critical Infections. OHE Contract Research Report, London: Office of Health Economics. Available at: https://www.ohe.org/publications/the-value-of-fast-diagnostics-in-time-critical-infections/
  • (related press release) “First-of-its-Kind Health Economic Analysis Shows Early Use of Fast Diagnostics in Sepsis Care Could Save Thousands of Lives and Reduce Health System Costs Across G7 Countries.” Available at https://www.biomerieux.com/us/en/journalists/press-releases/health-economic-analysis-sepsis-g7.html
    • As the press release makes clear, the study was sponsored by Biomérieux. But, the analysis is not specific to their products — rather the results would apply to any tools in the general category of rapid tests for either organism identification or susceptibility testing.
  • And these two for context:
    • 18 Jun 2025 newsletter, “Extending STEDI to diagnostics: STRIDES”:  We’ll mention this again below as an example of ongoing work that will build on the ideas in the OHE report.
    • 9 Apr 2026 newsletter: “GO-Dx: Global One Health Diagnostics Access Compact”: And, this newsletter discusses an industry-wide approach to ensuring that diagnostics, the cornerstones of both surveillance and proper antibiotic utilization, are accessible and utilized

In brief, this report uses a decision tree-based analysis to estimate outcomes for adults with bloodstream infections where are at high risk of progressing to sepsis. Note that the timeframe for the analysis is 13 months: 1 month of hospitalization and then a 1-year follow-up period:

OHE analysis of the impact of rapid diagnostics, model flow chart

Source: Figure 1 from the OHE paper.

The modeling considers differences in clinical outcomes and cost for rapid diagnostics vs. current standard of care (SOC) tools for diagnosis and AST for these at-risk patients based on these assumptions regarding the difference in time for these tools:

OHE analysis of the impact of rapid diagnostics, model flow chart

Source: Figure 2 from the OHE paper based on data from Peri AM et al. (BMC ID 2022, doi: 10.1186/s12879-022-07772-x), Schifman RB et al. (Arch Pathology Lab Med 2015, doi: 10.5858/arpa.2014-0258-CP), Yuceel-Timur I et al. (JAC 2024, 10.1093/jac/dkae280), and Caspar Y et al. (Eur J Clin Micro ID, 2024, doi: 10.1007/s10096-024-04820-z).

To make the analysis concrete in economic terms, the analysis focuses on data for 7 countries (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, UK, and USA). The potential for both clinical impact and health care savings was substantial. Shown here are the results for Japan and US:

OHE, QALY and dollar value of rapid diagnostics in Japan and the US

At left (Figure 4 from the OHE paper), we have population-level estimates of the number of QALYs gained (top-bar, light blue) and then the # of patients in whom a long-term consequence of sepsis is avoided (“averted LTC”, see list of LTCs in the decision tree figure, above)), # of averted deaths, and finally # of averted cases of sepsis. At right (Figure 5), we have a cost-savings estimate both at the population level (green gar) and per patient (orange line).
 
Overall, rapid identification and AST devices were predicted to have costs savings ranging from EUR 500/patient (Canada) to EUR 3,800/patient (Japan). When scaled up to the population level, annual national savings were predicted to range from EUR 26m (Canada) to EUR 2.5b (United States). The authors explain that:

  • “The improvements are achieved through shortening time to appropriate treatment and reducing the number of BSI patients progressing to sepsis and septic shock.
  • “In the longer term, fewer patients are projected to experience long-term complications related to sepsis, resulting in further savings in readmission and long-term management of these conditions.” 

The results were consistent across the 7 countries but (no surprise) differed in magnitude due to:

  • Differences in sepsis progression rates (higher in Japan due to an older population)
  • Differences in costs of acute care avoided (greater in the United States)
  • Differences in the size of the high‑risk BSI population.
  • Differences in how sepsis and BSI cases are coded in national databases.

 
Impressive! As discussed in the companion newsletter (the 27 May 2026 Banerjee paper newsletter entitled “Limits on measuring the impact of rapid antimicrobial susceptibility testing (AST)”), this type of modeling is going to be our best approach to estimating the value of improved identification and AST systems as it is not reasonable to expect to be able to measure these differences in clinical trials for the reasons discussed in the companion newsletter.
 
And this is certainly a springboard for future work. Think about the kind of papers we now have on the economics of AMR in general:

  • 29 Nov 2022: “Impact of PASTEUR: 9.9m lives saved, ROI of 125:1”
  • 8 Dec 2022: “Lives saved + ROI of PASTEUR-like pull in Canada, UK, EU, Japan!”
  • 27 Sep 2024: “Without action, AMR costs go from $66b to $159b/yr by 2050”
  • 14 Aug 2025: “$ Impact of AMR in your country: Interactive web tool!”

 
We’re already starting to see bridging from therapeutics to diagnostics with the work on STRIDES (18 Jun 2025, “Extending STEDI to diagnostics: STRIDES”) and as well the recent conversation on the value of diagnostics during last year’s Panmure House workshop (17 Feb 2026 newsletter).  We certainly look forward to more of this type of work in future. Well done to the team at OHE for organizing such an exhaustive analysis!
 
Best wishes,
 
John & Arjun
 
John H. Rex, MD | Chief Medical Officer, F2G Ltd. | Operating Partner, Advent Life Sciences. Follow me on Twitter: @JohnRex_NewAbx. See past newsletters and subscribe for the future: https://amr.solutions/blog/. All opinions are my own.
 
Arjun Srinivasan, MD | Deputy Chief Medical Officer, Joint Commission | formerly, Deputy Director, Division of Healthcare Quality Promotion, US CDC | Follow me at linkedin.com/in/arjun-srinivasan-28951b355. All opinions are my own.

John’s Top Recurring Meetings
Virtual meetings are easy to attend, but regular attendance at annual in-person events is the key to building your network and gaining deeper insight. My personal favorites for such in-person meetings are below. Of particular value for developers, the small meeting format of BEAM’s AMR Conference (March) and GAMRIC (September-October; formerly, the ESCMID-ASM conference series) creates excellent global networking. IDWeek (October) and ECCMID (April) are much larger meetings but also provide opportunities for networking with a substantial, focused audience via their Pipeline sessions. Hope to see you there!

  • [UPDATED INFO] 22-24 Sep 2026 (Lisbon, Portugal): The 2nd GAMRIC, the Global AMR Innovators Conference (London, UK). Formerly the ESCMID-ASM (or ASM-ESCMID depending on location) Joint Conference on Drug Development for AMR, 2026 will be the 11th year for this series that is now under the joint sponsorship of CARB-X, ESCMID, BEAM Alliance, GARDP, LifeArc, Boston University, and AMR.Solutions. The ongoing series employs the successful format of prior meetings with a single-track meeting and substantial networking time. The 2025 meeting was a sell-out success: a written summary is here and the videos are here. Registration for the 2026 meeting is now open and the near-final program is here: in addition to a keynote lecture by Karen Bush on the threat to beta-lactams due to the emergence of PBP3 mutations, there are sessions on funding, access, program design for narrow-spectrum agents such as phage, development for pediatrics, and more. The main abstract submission window is closed but late-breaker abstracts will be accepted 8-22 July 2026.
  • 21-24 Oct 2026 (Washington, DC, USA): IDWeek 2026, the annual meeting of the Infectious Diseases Society of America. I would expect the program to continue to provide a substantial opportunity to present a product to a large audience (see also adjacent note about ESCMID) as well as opportunities to present at an IDWeek Pipeline Session.
  • 23-24 Mar 2027 (Basel, Switzerland): The 10th AMR Conference (3-4 Mar 2026) is now over and offered a rich program that included a 10-year retrospective (we’ve done a lot!), regulatory updates, discussions of how to pursue development in China, and much more … in addition to being a superb opportunity for networking! I am told the session videos will soon be available on the conference website.
  • 9-13 April 2027 (Stockholm, Sweden): ESCMID Global 2027, the annual meeting of the European Society for Clinical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases. Details won’t be out for some months, but the website is here. I do know that the meeting schedule will again include a Science Policy Forum on Friday 9 April 2027 (see here the newsletter about the 2026 science policy forum) and all who are interested in Pull incentives and the antibiotic ecosystem should plan to be there!)..

  Upcoming meetings of interest to the AMR community:

  • 4-8 June 2026 (Washington, DC): ASM Microbe, the annual meeting of the American Society for Microbiology. The meeting format is evolving and next year will combine 3 meetings (ASM Health, ASM Applied and Environmental Microbiology, and ASM Mechanism Discovery) into one event. Go here for details.
  • 11-12 Jun 2026 (Washington, DC): The Second Annual Unite for Sepsis Symposium, presented by the Sepsis Alliance. The event seeks to accelerate progress in sepsis research and care. Go here for details and to register.
  • 22-24 Sep 2026 GAMRIC (Lisbon, Portugal), the Global AMR Innovators Conference (London, UK; formerly the ESCMID-ASM Joint Conference on Drug Development for AMR). See list of Top Recurring meetings, above..
  • [REGISTRATION IS OPEN] 10-18 Oct 2026 (Annecy, France, residential in-person program): ICARe (Interdisciplinary Course on Antibiotics and Resistance) … and 2026 will be the 10th year for this program. Patrice Courvalin orchestrates content with the support of an all-star scientific committee and faculty. The resulting soup-to-nuts training covers all aspects of antimicrobials, is very intense, and routinely gets rave reviews! Registration for 2026 is now open and runs through June 21, 2026. Go here to register!
  • 21-24 Oct 2026 (Washington, DC, USA): IDWeek 2026. See list of Top Recurring meetings, above.
  • 10-13 November 2026 (Madrid, Spain): The International Society for Infectious Diseases (ISID) has announced its 21st International Congress on Infectious Diseases (ICID). Register and view the preliminary program here (Early bird closes 30 July 2026); abstract deadline is 28 April 2026.
  • 23-24 Mar 2027 (Basel, Switzerland): The 11th AMR Conference sponsored by the BEAM Alliance. See list of Top Recurring meetings, above.
  • 9-13 April 2027 (Stockholm, Sweden): ESCMID Global 2026, the annual meeting of the European Society for Clinical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases. See Recurring Meetings list, above.
  • ??? Mar 2028 (yes, that’s 2028, with location TBD): The 2028 Gordon Research Conference (GRC, https://www.grc.org/) entitled “Antibacterials of Tomorrow to Combat the Global Threat of Antimicrobial Resistance” and its related Gordon Research Seminar (GRS) for young doctoral and post-doctoral researchers will be sometime in March 2028. The organizers hope to coordinate dates and location with the 2028 BEAM-AMR meeting. Details to follow — mark your calendar!

Self-paced courses, online training materials, and other reference materials:

Current funding opportunities

  • CARB-X have had one funding round (8-22 April 2026); a further round is expected during 4Q 2026. There are 4 funding themes for these rounds as below.
    • Direct-acting therapeutics for infections caused by Gram-negative bacteria
    • Novel Chemistry for AMR Challenge – target-based therapeutics.
    • Non-vaccine approaches to prevent neonatal sepsis
    • Diagnostics for neonatal sepsis
  • The Horizon Europe Work Programme 2026-2027 includes at least 3 calls of interest within its Cluster 1 — see the list below.  The application window starts 10 Feb 2026 and closes on 16 Apr 2026. See also the 12 Dec 2025 newsletter about the call. Note as well that there calls for agents to prevent and/or treat viral infections.
    • HORIZON-HLTH-2027-01-DISEASE-08: Development of innovative antimicrobials against pathogens resistant to antimicrobials
    • HORIZON-HLTH-2027-02-IND-02: Portable point-of-care diagnostics
    • HORIZON-HLTH-2026-01-DISEASE-03:Advancing research on the prevention, diagnosis, and management of post-infection long-term conditions. 
  • ENABLE-2 has continuously open calls for both its Hit-to-Lead program as well as its Hit Identification/Validation incubator. Applicants must be academics and non-profits in Europe due to restrictions from the funders. Applications are evaluated in cycles … see the website for details on current timing for reviews. 
  • BARDA’s long-running BAA (Broad Agency Announcement) for medical countermeasures (MCMs) for chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear (CBRN) threats, pandemic influenza, and emerging infectious diseases is now BAA-23-100-SOL-00004 and offers support for both antibacterial and antifungal agents (as well as antivirals, antitoxins, diagnostics, and more). Note especially these Areas of Interest: Area 3.1 (MDR Bacteria and Biothreat Pathogens), Area 3.2 (MDR Fungal Infections), and Area 7.2 (Antibiotic Resistance Diagnostics for Priority Bacterial Pathogens). Although prior BAAs used a rolling cycle of 4 deadlines/year, the updated BAA released 26 Sep 2023 has a 5-year application period that ends 25 Sep 2028 and is open to applicants regardless of location: BARDA seeks the best science from anywhere in the world! See also this newsletter for further comments on the BAA and its areas of interest.
  • HERA Invest was launched August 2023 with €100 million to support innovative EU-based SMEs in the early and late phases of clinical trials. Part of the InvestEU program supporting sustainable investment, innovation, and job creation in Europe, HERA Invest is open for application to companies developing medical countermeasures that address one of the following cross-border health threats: (i) Pathogens with pandemic or epidemic potential, (ii) Chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear (CBRN) threats originating from accidental or deliberate release, and (iii) Antimicrobial resistance (AMR). Non-dilutive venture loans covering up to 50% of investment costs are available. A closing date is not posted insofar as I can see — applications are accepted on a rolling basis; go here for more details.
  • The AMR Action Fund is open on an ongoing basis to proposals for funding of Phase 2 / Phase 3 antibacterial therapeutics. Per its charter, the fund prioritizes investment in treatments that address a pathogen prioritized by the WHO, the CDC and/or other public health entities that: (i) are novel (e.g., absence of known cross-resistance, novel targets, new chemical classes, or new mechanisms of action); and/or (ii) have significant differentiated clinical utility (e.g., differentiated innovation that provides clinical value versus standard of care to prescribers and patients, such as safety/tolerability, oral formulation, different spectrum of activity); and (iii) reduce patient mortality. It is also expected that such agents would have the potential to strongly address the likely requirements for delinked Pull incentives such as the UK (NHS England) subscription pilot and the PASTEUR Act in the US. Submit queries to contact@amractionfund.com.
  • INCATE (Incubator for Antibacterial Therapies in Europe) is an early-stage funding vehicle supporting innovation vs. drug-resistant bacterial infections. The fund provides advice, community, and non-dilutive funding (€10k in Stage I and up to €250k in Stage II) to support early-stage ventures in creating the evidence and building the team needed to get next-level funding. Details and contacts on their website (https://www.incate.net/).
  • These things aren’t sources of funds but would help you develop funding applications
    • The Global AMR R&D Hub’s dynamic dashboard (link) summarizes the global clinical development pipeline, incentives for AMR R&D, and investors/investments in AMR R&D. See also the 7 Feb 2026 newsletter (“The global funding pipeline, 2017-2023: A review”) about an excellent deep dive by the Hub team into patterns of funding over time.
    • Antimicrobial Resistance Research and Innovation in Australia is an actively updated summary that covers Australia’s AMR research and patent landscape. It is provided via collaboration between The Lens (an ambitious project seeking to discover, analyse, and map global innovation knowledge) and CSIRO (Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, an Australian Government agency responsible for scientific research). Lots to explore here!
    • Diagnostic developers would find valuable guidance in this 6-part series on in vitro diagnostic (IVD) development. Sponsored by CARB-X, C-CAMP, and FIND, it pulls together real-life insights into a succinct set of tutorials.
  • In addition to the lists provided by the Global AMR R&D Hub, you might also be interested in my most current lists of R&D incentives (link) and priority pathogens (link).
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